Thursday's Nations League card is mostly being sold on Italy against France and Spain's trip to Prague, and we covered those in yesterday's preview. This piece looks at the games around them: a Turkish side with nothing left to lose, a Montenegro team two wins from something special, and a CONCACAF double-header that most European bettors will scroll past.
Türkiye v Belgium — Istanbul, 17:00 UTC
Four games, four defeats. Türkiye arrive at the Atatürk Olympic Stadium bottom of their League A group, and the question is no longer whether they can climb but whether they can stop the slide in front of their own crowd. Belgium, third, have alternated all autumn (L, W, L, W), which says as much about their inconsistency as about their quality.
Our model makes Belgium favourites at 54%, with Türkiye at 23% and the draw at 24%. The single most likely score, though, is 1-1: a Belgium win is the likeliest result, but not by a wide margin. The more interesting angle is territory rather than the result. A home side chasing the game tends to win corners, and Türkiye over 2.5 corners (around 1.21) and over 7.5 match corners (around 1.34) both sit high on our list. If you want Belgium without laying a short price, X2 at roughly 1.32 covers the draw.
Montenegro v Latvia — 19:45 UTC
Here the form lines point the same way. Montenegro lead their League C group after a draw and three straight wins (D, W, W, W); Latvia are fourth with one draw from four (L, L, D, L). It is the most one-sided matchup on the slate by our numbers: Montenegro 69%, draw 21%, Latvia 10%, most likely score 2-0.
Short prices on a home win add little, so the analysis looks elsewhere. Latvia not scoring in the first half (around 1.26) fits a side that has struggled to create, and over 1.5 match goals (around 1.26) only needs Montenegro to do what they have done all autumn.
The early kick-off in Yerevan
Armenia (third, D, L, L, W) host Cyprus (second, W, W, D, L) at 17:00 UTC, and this is the game where our model has the least idea: 39% home, 30% draw, 32% away. When the result is that open, the analysis prefers a total: under 3.5 goals around 1.28. Over 7.5 corners at roughly 1.30 is the other line it rates.
Across the Atlantic: CONCACAF Nations League, 19:00 UTC
Two League B fixtures start at the same time. Barbados against Guadeloupe is close to a coin toss (36% v 39%, draw 24%), so the pick is that someone wins: 1 2 double chance around 1.29. Cayman Islands against Guyana is not close at all. Guyana are 78% to win, with 0-2 the most likely score, and the line our analysis likes is a first-half winner either way (around 1.23), on the reading that Guyana should be ahead by the break.
The headline games, briefly
For completeness: Spain (four wins out of four) go to Czechia (four defeats) as 79% favourites, about 1.24 to win, with Czechia not scoring before half-time at roughly 1.32. In Rome, France top the group on W, D, W, W and Italy sit second on W, D, W, L. The model gives France 51%, Italy 23%, draw 26%, and it prefers goals to sides there: over 1.5 at about 1.22.
Prices quoted are those at the time of our analysis and will move. Open any match for the full breakdown, team news and line-ups.
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